Portfolio comparisons

The arguments index investors keep having, each settled against the real monthly record rather than a hunch. Every page uses the longest window both sides share, rebalances once a year, and shows the fall as well as the return.

What did 60/40 cost against all stocks? US total market at 11.35% a year against 9.40%, 1953 to 2025. Read the comparison → Was holding only US stocks a mistake? US total market at 10.99% a year against 9.27%, 1990 to 2025. Read the comparison → Did a small-cap value tilt pay? A small-value tilt at 11.38% a year against 10.32%, 1926 to 2025. Read the comparison → How much did the last 30% of bonds cost? A 90/10 portfolio at 10.92% a year against 9.40%, 1953 to 2025. Read the comparison → What has cash really returned? US total market at 10.32% a year against 3.28%, 1926 to 2025. Read the comparison → Stocks or long Treasuries? US total market at 11.35% a year against 5.42%, 1953 to 2025. Read the comparison → Has the three-fund portfolio beaten just buying America? US total market at 10.99% a year against 8.13%, 1990 to 2025. Read the comparison → Is 60/40 just a worse bond fund? A 60/40 portfolio at 9.40% a year against 5.42%, 1953 to 2025. Read the comparison →

How to read these

A backtest is a record, not a forecast. Each of these answers one question over one stretch of months, and several of them would answer it differently over a different stretch. Where that matters, the page says so.

Nobody earned these returns. They are index returns with no fund fee, no spread and no tax taken out, and they assume a rebalance every year that nobody forgot.

These are generated from the same monthly data the backtest runs on, and rebuilt when that data is. To run a mix of your own instead of one of these, the backtest takes any weights you like.